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Macro Regime
Late-Cycle Non-Recessionary + Geopolitical Shock
Fed pause 3.5–3.75% · Iran conflict energy shock · ceasefire negotiations ongoing
74% conf.
Peace Dividend Rotation In Progress
Defense fading · airlines rebounding · international equities recovering
61% conf.
Sector Performancehistorical avg % by regime
Fed Pause
Oil Shock
Ceasefire
Live Signals●
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Sector Heatmaplive ETF data
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Top Gainers
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Top Losers
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Historical Play Patterns
M&A Rumor Plays
Deal closes within 90d28%
Holds 50%+ of spike at 30d44%
Full giveback if no deal61%
AI Disruption Selloffs
Recovery within 45 days78%
Exceeds pre-drop price54%
Outperforms SPX in 90d62%
Ceasefire Rebound
Airlines +20%+ in 60d71%
Cruises outperform airlines58%
Oil re-spikes >10% in 30d34%
Active triggers: Fed pause (3.5–3.75%) · Iran conflict energy shock · defense supercycle · AI infrastructure buildout · ceasefire rotation emerging.
Trigger 1 — Fed Rate PauseACTIVE
Fed held at 3.5–3.75% for 2nd consecutive meeting Mar 2026. One cut expected H2 2026. Tech/quality outperforms 78% of non-recessionary pauses since 1984.
▲MSFT▲NVDA▲JPM▼VNQ▼AMT
Trigger 2 — Middle East Oil ShockRESOLVING
Brent peaked ~$120, retreating on ceasefire. US domestic E&P insulated from Hormuz. Airlines hardest hit, now highest-beta rebound.
▲XOM▲CVX▲GLD▼DAL ↺▼UAL ↺
Trigger 3 — Defense SupercycleFADE WAR TRADE
$1.5T FY2027 defense budget. Surged to ATH March, fading on ceasefire. RTX Q1 earnings Apr 21 = first war revenue test.
▲RTX▲GD◆LMT▲NOC
Trigger 4 — AI InfrastructureSTRUCTURAL
Big tech reaffirmed AI capex Q1 '26. VST +304% in 2024. NVDA +173% in 2024. Structural despite warflation pressure.
▲NVDA▲AVGO▲MSFT▲VST
Fed pause outperformance
6 cycles 1984–2025Technology78%
Financials72%
Industrials67%
Real Estate38%
Utilities33%
Post-MENA ceasefire — 6mo avg
Airlines+32%
S&P 500+22%
Intl Developed+18%
Energy (reversal)-9%
Defense (fade)-6%
Q1 2026 earnings: RTX (Apr 21) and XOM (Apr 25) highest-signal — first test of macro events converting to corporate revenue.
| Date | Ticker | Company | EPS Est. | Macro Theme | Move | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
APR 21 | RTX | RTX Corporation | $1.48 | Defense war contract conversion | ±5% | HIGH |
APR 22 | LMT | Lockheed Martin | $6.34 | F-35 doubling · $173B backlog | ±4% | HIGH |
APR 25 | XOM | ExxonMobil | $2.18 | US WTI margin vs Brent spike | ±4% | HIGH |
APR 28 | MSFT | Microsoft | $3.22 | AI capex · Azure cloud growth | ±6% | HIGH |
APR 29 | META | Meta Platforms | $5.25 | AI ad targeting · Llama capex | ±7% | WATCH |
APR 30 | AMZN | Amazon | $1.36 | AWS AI demand · consumer spending | ±6% | WATCH |
MAY 14 | NVDA | NVIDIA | $0.89 | AI chip demand · H200 data center | ±10% | HIGH |
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